A foresight of the future of energy production, distribution and consumption

At ApolloEvents we care about environment, sustainability, and the future of our planet. We want to play a part in spreading information that can make a positive impact and lead mankind in a better direction – when it comes to leadership, politics, and the future we enter. Delphi is said to have it’s own method to foresee the future, and we thought that maybe, you’ll find this report is as interesting as we do! Take a look:

“These days you probably wonder, like most other people: How is the production, distribution and consumption of electricity and heat going to change? What will the future of mobility look like? How will developments in society change the way we use energy – and how will new energy technologies impact society?

Energy systems worldwide are undergoing a phase of fundamental transformation. Delphi Energy Future want to broaden the debate and stay focused on the technical and political aspects – and examine the interdependencies between different areas of society. Aiming to break down the national parameters that, particularly in Germany, shape the current discussion on adapting or redesigning energy systems, Delphi Energy Future venture a comprehensive look at future energy systems from a global point of view. Therefore we conducted a worldwide Delphi survey with more than 350 energy experts from 40 countries contributing with their knowledge and experience.

The Delphi method is a tool of strategic foresight. In complex thematic areas shaped by a high degree of uncertainty the Delphi method is used to provide orientation. Especially where long-term developments are concerned, the method can help to identify potential opportunities and risks and serve as an early warning system for decision-makers in politics and business. The Delphi method was developed on the assumption that data-based forecasts derived as a mere extrapolation of statistical trends are insufficient to adequately assess long-term future developments. The aim of a Delphi study is rather to describe possible crucial future developments based on the personal assessment and experience of experts from various spheres. Offering fresh perspectives and guidance, the method assists decision-makers in actively shaping the future.

A Delphi study consist of certain key elements: Based on interviews with specialists, theses on potential future developments are formulated and submitted to a large panel of experts. This large expert panel evaluates and comments on the theses in at least two rounds. In the second round the answers and comments of all other experts are made available to all participants, who are then able to further develop their own opinion based on their co-participants’ input. Thus, a structured group communication pro- cess emerges. The surveys’ anonymous nature ensures that the process is not influenced by the seniority, prominence or dominance of individual participants – as can sometimes be observed in face-to-face debates typically held as part of workshops or conferences.

With this study report we wish to offer food for thought and inspiration to visualise the future of complex energy systems as they might take shape tomorrow.”

Read the whole survey here.

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